Assessment of wind energy potential over Ontario and Great Lakes using the NARR data: 1980-2012

Patterns and trends in wind speed and wind power over the entire province of Ontario, Canada, and the adjacent Great Lakes and coastal Hudson and James Bays for small wind turbine hub heights (10 and 30 m) were analyzed for the period 1980-2012 using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Air density, atmospheric pressure, temperature, and the instantaneous u and v components of wind speed at three-hourly intervals, with a grid resolution of 32 km were used for estimating wind power. Statistically significant increasing seasonal and annual 33 year trends in wind power predominate over large water bodies like the Great Lakes and eastern James Bay, where ice cover is diminishing. Significant correlations between wind power and decreasing surface albedo corresponding to declining ice-cover, along with increasing instability in the 10-30 m surface layer during the fall and winter months were noted over the Great Lakes, particularly over Lake Superior. The trends suggest a continuing potential for increasing offshore electrical wind generation while lake-ice cover continues to decline.