Low-frequency variability and heat transport in a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Finally, a predictability analysis is performed. Once the decadal-scale periodic orbits develop, the coupled system's short-term instabilities-as measured by its Lyapunov exponents-are drastically reduced, indicating the ocean's stabilizing role on the atmospheric dynamics. On decadal time scales, the recurrence of the solution in a certain region of the invariant subspace associated with slow modes displays some extended predictability, as reflected by the oscillatory behavior of the error for the atmospheric variables at long lead times.