کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
826355 907920 2013 4 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه شیمی شیمی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
An early prediction of the maximum amplitude of the solar cycle 25
چکیده انگلیسی

A solar activity precursor technique of spotless event has been currently used to predict the strengths and the times of rise of the 11-year coming cycles. This simple statistical method has been previously applied to predict the maximum amplitudes and the times of rises of cycles 22 and 23. The results obtained are successful for both cycles. A developed version of the suggested method was previously used to make an early forecast of the characteristic parameters of the cycle 24. In this work the preliminarily predicted parameters of the cycle 24 are checked using observed values of the spotless events. In addition, the developed method is also applied to forecast the maximum amplitude and time of rise of the 25th solar cycle. The maximum Wolf number and time of rise of the latter cycle are found to be 118.2 and 4.0 years respectively.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Advanced Research - Volume 4, Issue 3, May 2013, Pages 275–278
نویسندگان
, ,