کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
826406 907924 2014 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Predicting morphological changes DS New Naga-Hammadi Barrage for extreme Nile flood flows: A Monte Carlo analysis
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه شیمی شیمی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Predicting morphological changes DS New Naga-Hammadi Barrage for extreme Nile flood flows: A Monte Carlo analysis
چکیده انگلیسی

While construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) has stopped concurrent flooding events, River Nile is still subject to low intensity flood waves resulting from controlled release of water from the dam reservoir. Analysis of flow released from New Naga-Hammadi Barrage, which is located at 3460 km downstream AHD indicated an increase in magnitude of flood released from the barrage in the past 10 years. A 2D numerical mobile bed model is utilized to investigate the possible morphological changes in the downstream of Naga-Hammadi Barrage from possible higher flood releases. Monte Carlo simulation analyses (MCS) is applied to the deterministic results of the 2D model to account for and assess the uncertainty of sediment parameters and formulations in addition to sacristy of field measurements. Results showed that the predicted volume of erosion yielded the highest uncertainty and variation from deterministic run, while navigation velocity yielded the least uncertainty. Furthermore, the error budget method is used to rank various sediment parameters for their contribution in the total prediction uncertainty. It is found that the suspended sediment contributed to output uncertainty more than other sediment parameters followed by bed load with 10% less order of magnitude.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Advanced Research - Volume 5, Issue 1, January 2014, Pages 97–107
نویسندگان
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