Extinction probabilities of Hassawi cattle from Saudi Arabia using population viability analysis

The sharp reduction in population size (N) of Hassawi cattle alarmed to estimate the possibility of extinction over a defined future time horizon. Two Hassawi cattle populations were considered for population viability analysis (PVA) in order to provide estimates of extinction probabilities (EPs). The EPs were estimated using Vortex® modeling program. The estimates of 2013 census and records on previous numbers were utilized in PVA models for two separated populations and their meta-population. The results of EPs and evolutionary growth rate were simulated for past and future, utilizing their demographic parameters and catastrophic events; like, feed scarcity, low production capability, crossbreeding and epidemic diseases. The simulated model concludes that the Hassawi cattle is facing extinction as the population size (N) and effective population size (Ne) were much less than those recommended to save endangerment. Therefore, the mimicked dynamic history of real Hassawi cattle population suggests that the assumed model was reasonable to mimic the likely fate faced by the Hassawi cattle population in the past. The future model concluded that the Hassawi cattle are indeed facing extinction after 21 years if assumptions of past model existed because both N and Ne were much lower than those recommended for escaping endangerment. Furthermore, PE increased with availability and severity of catastrophe events. The results of PVA and PEs should be considered into account to draw inferences about the expected future the Hassawi cattle dynamic because they are accurate data than those might extract from historical records. It is recommended that PVA may be considered in developing conservation strategy for the Hassawi cattle in order to conserve their valuable genetic resources, while the climate change is alarming.