A Novel Quantitative Analysis Model for Information System Survivability Based on Conflict Analysis

This paper describes a novel quantitative analysis model for system survivability based on conflict analysis, which provides a direct-viewing survivable situation. Based on the three-dimensional state space of conflict, each player's efficiency matrix on its credible motion set can be obtained. The player whose desire is the strongest in all initiates the moving and the overall state transition matrix of information system may be achieved. In addition, the process of modeling and stability analysis of conflict can be converted into a Markov analysis process, thus the obtained results with occurring probability of each feasible situation will help the players to quantitatively judge the probability of their pursuing situations in conflict. Compared with the existing methods which are limited to post-explanation of system's survivable situation, the proposed model is relatively suitable for quantitatively analyzing and forecasting the future development situation of system survivability. The experimental results show that the model may be effectively applied to quantitative analysis for survivability. Moreover, there will be a good application prospect in practice.