The role of cumulative risk and protection for violent offending

• We examine risk and protective factors for violent offending.
• Aggression, motor restlessness, and concentration difficulties predict violent offending.
• An increase in the number of childhood risk factors is related to an increase in the odds of conviction for violent offending.
• Protective factors in the individual, school, peer, and family domains decrease the odds of conviction for violent offending.
• Protective factors act in a cumulative manner to predict violent offending.

PurposeRisk and protective factors for antisocial behavior have been shown to act in a cumulative manner. The purpose of this article is to examine the predictive power of risk factors and protective indices predicting violent offending.MethodsWe used longitudinal data across 25 years to predict violent offenses for 475 males. Cumulative childhood risk factors (age 10), and cumulative individual, family, peer and school protective factors (ages 13, 15) were analyzed.ResultsThe likelihood for a conviction for violent offenses showed a fivefold increase with an increase in risk factors from 0 to 3. This increase was markedly reduced when controlling for protective factors. Similarly, controlling for risk factors, the likelihood for a conviction was almost ameliorated, showing a tenfold decrease, with an increase in protective factors from 0 to 10. Interactions between cumulative risk and protective factors were also found. Total number of protective factors significantly decreased the likelihood of violent offenses for those with and without childhood behavioral risk factors, however the decrease was significantly greater for those with no childhood risk factors.ConclusionsAnalyses of antisocial behavior should not be restricted to risk factors, but include protective factors, if the purpose is to better tailor interventions.