To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota

• Study examined 105 sex offenders civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.
• MnSOST-3 used to estimate effects of civil commitment on sex offense recidivism.
• Estimated four-year sexual recidivism rate was 9 percent for civil commits.
• Civil commitment reduced four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent.
• Estimated lifetime sexual recidivism rate was 28 percent.

PurposeThis study examines the selective incapacitation effects of civil commitment on sexual reoffending among 105 Minnesota sex offenders who were civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.MethodsThe Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3, a sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, was used to estimate what the four-year sexual recidivism rate would have been for these offenders had they been released to the community. Integration of Survival with Quality of Life (iSQoL) software was used to extrapolate the survival curves over a 50-year period to develop a lifetime sexual recidivism estimate.ResultsIf the 105 civilly committed sex offenders had been released to the community, an estimated nine percent would have been reconvicted of a new sex offense within four years. Civilly committing these offenders therefore likely reduced the overall four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent. The results further suggest that if these offenders had been released to the community, an estimated 28 percent would be rearrested for another sex offense within their lifetime.ConclusionsTo better align the costs of civil commitment with its public safety benefits, states operating these programs should emphasize the use of intermediate alternatives in the community for a more positive return on investment.