کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
883686 912345 2012 18 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Booms and busts in economic activity: A behavioral explanation
چکیده انگلیسی

Booms and busts in economic activity are a regular occurrence. They lead to a strong empirical regularity, i.e. that output gaps and output growth are non-normally distributed. Mainstream macroeconomic models explain this phenomenon by invoking exogenous shocks that are non-normally distributed. This is not a very satisfactory explanation as it shifts our ignorance one step further. I propose an explanation based on a behavioral macroeconomic model, in which agents are assumed to have limited cognitive abilities and thus develop different beliefs. This model produces waves of optimism and pessimism in an endogenous way (animal spirits) and provides for a better (endogenous) explanation of the observed non-normality in output movements. I also analyze the implications for monetary policy.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization - Volume 83, Issue 3, August 2012, Pages 484–501
نویسندگان
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