کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
884030 | 1471683 | 2010 | 16 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics Heterogeneous expectations, adaptive learning, and evolutionary dynamics](/preview/png/884030.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper presents a linear self-referential macroeconomic model with the possibility of multiple equilibria where agents have the choice of using one of two forecasting models (one of minimum state variable form and the other of sunspot form) to form expectations of current and future prices. Endogenous predictor selection is modeled as an evolutionary game where individuals choose among the forecasting models based on relative performance. Some Nash solutions are not relevant as they are not stable under evolutionary or adaptive learning. Finally, it is shown that the sunspot equilibrium is fragile against temporary shocks to information costs.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization - Volume 74, Issues 1–2, May 2010, Pages 42–57
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization - Volume 74, Issues 1–2, May 2010, Pages 42–57
نویسندگان
Eran A. Guse,