کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
884063 912369 2010 19 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper we propose novel techniques for the empirical analysis of adaptive learning and sticky information in inflation expectations. These methodologies are applied to the distribution of households’ inflation expectations collected by the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. To account for the evolution of the cross-section of inflation forecasts over time and measure the degree of heterogeneity in private agents’ forecasts, we explore time series of percentiles from the empirical distribution. Our results show that heterogeneity is pervasive in the process of inflation expectation formation. We identify three regions of the distribution that correspond to different underlying mechanisms of expectation formation: a static or highly autoregressive region on the left hand side of the median, a nearly rational region around the median and a fraction of forecasts on the right hand side of the median formed in accordance with adaptive learning and sticky information.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization - Volume 75, Issue 3, September 2010, Pages 426–444
نویسندگان
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