Modeling of habitat suitability of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) in Iran in future

Future changes in climate are imminent and they threat endangered and rare species due to habitat destruction. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus gedrosianus) is a rare and vulnerable species whose habitat fragmentation and habitat loss decreased the size of its population significantly. Climate change is another threat to this species that is investigated in this research work. Aiming at this goal, ten species distribution models (SDMs) were applied as helpful tools for evaluating the potential effectiveness of climate change in habitat suitability of Asiatic black bear in Iran. Potential dispersal of Asiatic black bear was modeled as a function of 32 environmental variables for the current time and 2070 for 44 climate change scenarios (CC scenario) of future climate. Our results showed that modeling result depended on type of model. Our results confirmed that one of the greatest threats in the near future for Asiatic black bear was the change of suitable habitat due to climate change. All the CC scenarios showed that migration of this species would be to the north and west areas with higher elevation and that an increase in area would be more than a decrease in area in all scenarios. Recognizing and protecting potential future habitats are of the important activities to conserve this species and identify areas with conservation priority.