Impact of climate and land use change on ecosystem services: A case study of Samutsakorn province, Thailand

The capacity of delivering ecosystem services essential to social well- being is impeded by climate and land use change, causing a significant alteration in the quality of functions and services of many ecosystems. This paper focuses on how to project future services of coastal ecosystem in Samutsakorn province, Thailand. The 2050 climate layers are projected by using WorldClim database at 30 s resolution. Projection of land use change analysis in 2050 using a spatial allocation model is simulated by two scenarios; business as usual and sustainability driven. Result revealed that an increase in sea level, temperature and precipitation, with an associated decrease in forest cover will ultimately degrade the function and service of coastal ecosystem and impede community resilience. There is thus an urgent need on scaling up and restoring mangrove ecosystems and effective coastal adaptation to climate change which heavily depends on engagement of stakeholders at the early stage.