Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project

This research report presents latest results on the TechCast Project, first reported in Technology Forecasting & Social Change 14 years ago [1]. TechCast is an online Delphi system that pools background trends and the judgment of experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Results are presented for strategic technological advances that are likely to enter the mainstream and their expected impacts, providing an overview of the Technology Revolution. Aggregating the forecast data then provides macro-forecasts of broad timetables for economic and social change. This analysis suggests that the global economy is likely to enter a new economic upcycle about 2015 and reach an advanced stage of development about 2020. We also examine examples of how organizations develop technology strategy to compete in an era of economic transformation, and conclude by analyzing the role of forecasting as one of many methods for reducing uncertainty.

► Pools the knowledge of 100 plus experts to forecast breakthroughs in all fields
► Possibly the best system available, updated constantly, and validated annually
► Empirical data makes this more science-based and less speculative.
► Reduces uncertainty to 20–30%, or + 1/− 3 years at a ten year horizon
► Forecasts are aggregated to “macro-forecast” the economy and society.