Adaptive foresight modular design and dynamic adjustment mechanism: Framework and Taiwan case study

In response to future external environmental challenges and to foster a consensus on national development, over the past 30 years developed and developing countries have endeavored to set a national direction for development and allocation of R&D resources through a standardized operational model on foresight projects. However, major national foresight programmes that have a 4–5 year cycle have encountered many challenges. These challenges include prolonged planning time, resulting in not keeping pace with the ever-changing environment, massive resource investment unsuitable for countries with limited resources, and bottlenecks such as inoperability of the planning processes connected to follow-up project promotion. In this article, we propose a dynamic modular design perspective to overcome such difficulties and demonstrate the process and achievements of foresight planning using the Taiwan Industry and Advanced Technology Research Project as an example. Our research results can serve as a reference in national technology foresight planning for developing countries with limited resources in the rapidly changing technology development environment.

► Developing countries particularly need a flexible mechanism of foresight research.
► The model proposed can serve as a reference for developing countries.
► Modular design facilitates a consensus through opinion divergence and convergence.
► Dynamic adjustment can dynamically examine and modify existing planning outcomes.