A nuclear power renaissance?

Nuclear energy has been experiencing a revival in many countries, since it is considered to be a possible substitute for fossil fuels for electricity generation. This calls for a focused analysis, in order to evaluate whether conditions exist for its wide employment. While typical aspects against this option have to do with waste management, security of power plants and related health concerns, other issues less frequently considered by politics, mass‐media, and public opinion seem particularly crucial to understand if we are really going to face a nuclear energy renaissance. In particular, nuclear energy is well known to depend on parallel dynamics of uranium extraction and reactor startup. In this paper we apply an innovation diffusion framework to model co-evolutionary processes of uranium extraction, reactor startup and nuclear energy consumption at a world level. We also perform an analysis of nuclear consumption dynamics in France, Japan, and the USA, which are the three countries that are mostly invested in it. The results obtained by analyzing all of these processes do not seem to support the idea of a new era for nuclear energy.

► A study on the hypothesis of a nuclear power renaissance.
► Diffusion models for uranium extraction, reactor startups, nuclear consumption.
► Decreasing global production of uranium in the next twenty years.
► A declining pattern for reactor startups.
► No growth for nuclear consumption at world and regional level.