The temporal dynamics of sensemaking: A hindsight–foresight analysis of public commission reporting into the past and future of the “new terrorism”

The aim of this article is to extend sensemaking theory in public commission reporting by drawing attention to, and demonstrating differences in the temporal dynamics between past and future, hindsight and foresight within the sensemaking/sensegiving processes of two public commission reports. They are The Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States and The United States Commission into 21st Century Terrorism and National Security Report. Stemming from our analysis of how these commissions make sense of the risk posed by terrorism to national security, we seek to make three contributions. First, we develop sensemaking/sensegiving concepts in public commission reporting by theorizing about hindsight–foresight temporal dynamics. In particular, we extend existing sensemaking scholarship on public commission reporting by directing attention towards the important, yet under-scrutinized role that these inquiries have in sensemaking about the future. Second, we extend the presuppositions underpinning sensemaking theory by operationalizing concepts of antenarrative and employing them in our comparative analysis of the two reports. Third, we contribute to practice by illustrating empirically some of the ‘tactics’ that can be used for challenging hindsight about the known past for the purpose of improving foresight about an unknown future.

► We investigate the hindsight–foresight dynamics of sensemaking/sensegiving.
► Our study compares two public commissions into terrorism and security.
► The first commission analysed is The 9/11 Commission Report.
► The second commission analysed is The Hart–Rudman Commission Report.
► The study extends extant sensemaking/sensegiving axioms for a speculative age.