Managing TFT-LCDs under uncertainty: When crystal cycles meet business cycles

Understanding the correlation between the crystal cycle and the business cycle is important, because it can help managers to anticipate change, reduce environmental uncertainty, and formulate operational objectives. To this end, we focused on China and the U.S. in our analysis. We found that the economic indicators that were the most relevant in the characterization of China's huge and burgeoning TFT-LCD market are gross domestic production and industrial production. We complemented this finding by conducting similar analyses in the U.S. market using a more comprehensive list of economic indicators.

Research Highlights
► We study the correlation between the crystal cycle and the business cycle.
► GDP was the most relevant indicator for grasping China's TFT-LCDs.
► Movements in GDP in China led the TFT-LCD market by 4–5 quarters.