Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030 — A Delphi based scenario study

In this paper, we present the findings of a web-based real-time Delphi study concerning the factors which will influence the future development of the transport infrastructure until the year 2030. Intensifying globalization, increased urbanization, ongoing shortages in public finances, and the requirements of a more demanding and growing world population are some of the challenges, which global transport will face. This research identifies, assesses, and integrates long-range developments of various factors, such as supply and demand, financing, competitiveness, and sustainability, which will affect the future of the transport industry and its infrastructure. Results are presented in a final probable scenario, which is divided into four different scenario aspects. Moreover, managerial and governmental implications for strategy and policy development are discussed.

► A systematic framework to interpret Delphi study results is proposed.
► A probable scenario regarding “Transport Infrastructure 2030” is provided.
► The scenario is developed from four different aspects: supply and demand, finance, competitiveness, and sustainability.
► Implications for political and corporate decision makers are derived.