Combining conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, the Delphi method, and the innovation diffusion model to analyze the development of innovative products in Taiwan's TV market

In science and technology industries, innovative products are launched rapidly, making the lifecycle of new products ever shorter. Thus, it is important that companies understand consumers' needs and consider expert opinion when analyzing the development of a new technology. However, no studies have combined these two perspectives with regard to the development of a new product. Therefore, this research combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis, and the Delphi method with the innovative diffusion model to analyze the development of Taiwan's TV market over the next 10 years. The results show that the outlook for demand for light-emitting diode (LED) TVs in Taiwan is very optimistic; sales of LED TVs will surpass sales of liquid crystal display TVs in 2015 in the optimistic scenario and in 2017 in the most likely scenario.

► We combined conjoint analysis, scenario analysis and innovation diffusion model.
► Consumer preference and expert opinion are important in predicting new products.
► The results show that the cathode ray tube TV will disappear from the market.
► The liquid crystal display TV will eventually be replaced by the LED TV.