Producing state of the future indexes using the international futures model

This paper reports on the introduction of the State of the Future Index (SOFI) into the University of Denver's International Futures (IFs) modeling system, a synthesis that will permit the calculation and comparison of the SOFI for all nations covered in the model. The SOFI is an index designed to show whether the future outlook is improving or not; it is also useful in policy analysis since it can be used to demonstrate whether contemplated policies appear to change the future, overall, for the better. It is one of the few indexes that are forecasted.The capability to calculate SOFI has been added to the IFs model; this addition now permits the model to calculate SOFI for all of the countries in the model. With this capability national SOFIs can be computed by anyone and for any country, set of countries, region, or globally. The model, its database, and now the SOFI calculation are available online at no cost to the users. This opens the opportunity to produce an annual or biennial publication that tracks and ranks the State of the Future Index for countries, regions, and the world as a whole.

Research Highlights
► The International Futures model now includes the State of the Future Index (SOFI).
► The State of the Future Index projects the future outlook of nations or regions.
► This synthesis permits comparison of SOFI's for all nations covered in the model.
► The model is on line and freely available.