US Nobel laureates: Logistic growth versus Volterra–Lotka

The logistic-growth equation is a special case of the Volterra–Lotka equations. The former describes competition only between members of the same species whereas the latter describes competition also with other species. In the study of US Nobel laureates considering laureates per population improves the quality of the logistic fit but the Volterra–Lotka approach suggests that a logistic description would be a good approximation for data per unit of time rather than cumulative data. Fitting logistic S-curves on cumulative data – although proven successful in many business and other applications – constitutes treacherous terrain for inexperienced S-curve enthusiasts. The Volterra–Lotka analysis of Nobel laureates reveals other insights such as that Americans and other nationalities are locked in a win–win struggle with Americans drawing more of a benefit, and also that American Nobel laureates “incubate” new Nobel laureates to a lesser extent than other nationalities.