Foresight — balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence

Extensive involvement of social actors and perspectives is an increasing trend in foresight. Simultaneously, however, the theoretical literature suggests that there is a trade-off between increasing variety and productive convergence. The paper examines, through a sample of recent foresight exercises, how European foresight balances between variety and convergence. The findings support the existence of a trade-off, and suggest that it can be classified in two sub-categories: one between involvement and instrumentality, the other between creativeness and stakeholding. The study offers several options for reconciling and counterbalancing the mutually exclusive inclinations in the organising of foresight.