Predicting U.S. jet fighter aircraft introductions from 1944 to 1982: A dogfight between regression and TFDEA

Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA with a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and multiple-regression model from Martino, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using first-flight data of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first-flight dates than the multiple-regression forecast. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new products.