Age at first reproduction and probability of reproductive failure in women

Life history theory predicts a trade-off between fitness benefits and costs of delaying age at first reproduction (AFR). In many human populations, maternal AFR has been increasingly delayed beyond sexual maturity over the past decades, raising a question of whether any fitness benefits accrued outweigh costs incurred. To investigate the cost–benefit trade-off concerning AFR in women, we construct a theoretical model and test its predictions using pedigree data from historical Finnish mothers. The model predicts that the probability of reproductive failure (no offspring produced reaching breeding) will increase with AFR if the benefit with delaying in terms of improvement to offspring quality (i.e., breeding probability) cannot offset the cost from decline in offspring quantity. The data show that offspring quantity declined significantly with delayed reproduction, while offspring quality remained initially constant before declining when AFR was delayed beyond 30. Consistent with the theoretical model's predictions, reproductive failure probability increased markedly with delaying AFR after 30, independently of maternal socioeconomic status. Our study is the first to investigate the associations between delay in AFR after sexual maturity and changes in not only offspring quantity but also offspring quality and suggest a significant evolutionary disadvantage of delayed AFR beyond 30 for lineage persistence in a predemographic transition society.