Factors influencing survival and long-term population viability of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus): Implications for conservation

A population viability analysis is important for the management of endangered populations and requires the estimation of survival parameters. The long-tailed bat (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) is one of only two native terrestrial mammals currently found in New Zealand and is classed as vulnerable. Its viability in temperate beech (Nothofagus) forest, Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, New Zealand was estimated using mark-recapture data collected between 1993 and 2003 using the Program MARK. Survival was estimated based on a total of 5286 captures representing 1026 individuals. Overall annual survival varied between 0.34 and 0.83 but varied significantly among three sub-populations and with sex and age. Females generally had a higher survival rate compared to males; and adults had higher survival relative to juveniles. Survival of all bats was lower in years when the number of introduced mammalian predators was high and when the winter temperature was warmer than average. High numbers of introduced predators occurred during three of the 10 years in the study. Climate change may mean that the conditions that promote high predator numbers may occur more frequently. A preliminary population viability analysis using a projection matrix on the overall adult female population showed an average 5% decline per year (λ = 0.95). Increased predator control targeting a range of predators is required in years when their numbers are high in order to halt the decline of this population of long-tailed bats. Population estimates using minimum number alive estimates supported the population estimates derived from Program MARK and a population viability analysis using matrices.