Yellowstone's ungulates after wolves - expectations, realizations, and predictions

We evaluated the initial implications of wolf (Canis lupus) recovery on ungulates in Yellowstone National Park and compared expectations prior to wolf restoration with observed impacts since restoration. The numerical and functional responses of colonizing wolves in Yellowstone's prey-rich environment were higher than expected and close to the maximum rates predicted prior to wolf restoration. Counts of northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus elaphus) decreased more (50%) than predicted (5-30%), and will likely continue to decrease given the strong preference of wolves for elk and continued high kill rates despite this substantial reduction in elk abundance. Contrary to expectations, human harvests were not reduced appreciably concurrent with wolf restoration, but instead remained similar to pre-wolf restoration years. However, antler-less permits were gradually reduced by 51% during 2000-2004 and additional reductions may be necessary while wolf densities remain high. There have been no substantial effects of wolf recovery on other ungulate species (bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), bison (Bison bison), moose (Alces alces), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), pronghorn (Antilocapra americana)). However, wolf recovery may eventually contribute to increased bison and pronghorn abundance by decreasing elk and coyote abundance, respectively. Wolf recovery may also contribute to more-pronounced spatial structuring of sex/age classes of northern Yellowstone elk through changes in their distribution, migration, and age structure. The initial consequences of wolf recovery support the premise that wolves may naturally achieve densities above their threshold for ecological effectiveness and contribute to significant changes in ecosystems, including the amelioration of ungulate-caused landscape simplification.