کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
958620 | 929042 | 2010 | 16 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach A hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings on accounting-ratio-based and market-based information: A binary quantile regression approach](/preview/png/958620.png)
While using the binary quantile regression (BQR) model, we establish a hybrid bankruptcy prediction model with dynamic loadings for both the accounting-ratio-based and market-based information. Using the proposed model, we conduct an empirical study on a dataset comprising of default events during the period from 1996 to 2006. In this study, those firms experienced bankruptcy/liquidation events as defined by the Compustat database are classified as “defaulted” firms, whereas all other firms listed in the Fortune 500 with over a B-rating during the same time period are identified as “survived” firms. The empirical findings of this study are consistent with the following notions. The distance-to-default (DD) variable derived from the market-based model is statistically significant in explaining the observed default events, particularly of those firms with relatively poor credit quality (i.e., high credit risk). Conversely, the z-score obtained with the accounting-ratio-based approach is statistically significant in predicting bankruptcies of firms of relatively good credit quality (i.e., low credit risk). In-sample and out-of-sample bankruptcy prediction tests demonstrated the superior performance of utilizing dynamic loadings rather than constant loadings derived by the conventional logit model.
Journal: Journal of Empirical Finance - Volume 17, Issue 4, September 2010, Pages 818–833