کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
959242 | 929186 | 2014 | 13 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The value of information for integrated assessment models of climate change
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزش اطلاعات برای مدل های ارزیابی یکپارچه تغییرات اقلیمی
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 °C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of “climate catastrophes,” which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management - Volume 68, Issue 1, July 2014, Pages 111-123
Journal: Journal of Environmental Economics and Management - Volume 68, Issue 1, July 2014, Pages 111-123
نویسندگان
Stephen C. Newbold, Alex L. Marten,