کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
963381 1479166 2015 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries
چکیده انگلیسی
Using non-linear methods, we argue that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. In the case of OECD countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary to one's priors, it is not always the case that government spending is going up in recessions (i.e., acting countercyclically). In almost as many cases, government spending is actually going down (i.e., acting procyclically). Since the economy does not respond symmetrically to government spending increases or decreases, the “true” long-run multiplier for bad times (and government spending going up) turns out to be 2.3 compared to 1.3 if we just distinguish between recession and expansion. In extreme recessions, the long-run multiplier reaches 3.1.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of International Money and Finance - Volume 52, April 2015, Pages 15-31
نویسندگان
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