Exchange rate regimes and prices: The cases of Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (1874–1998)

This paper studies the relationship among Italian, Spanish and United Kingdom prices over the period 1874–1998, for most of which the currencies of these three countries maintained a floating exchange rate regime. By using cointegration techniques with broken linear trends, we find a single vector for the period 1874–1935 and two vectors and, consequently, a single common trend for the period 1940–1998. Therefore, this paper provides new evidence of no long-run monetary independence under floating regimes. Furthermore, the price differential dynamics captured by deterministic trends in the period 1940–1998, as well as agreeing with the evidence of long-run transmission of interest rates in the floating post-Bretton Woods era, fit in perfectly with the new de facto taxonomies on exchange rates.