Exchange rate fluctuations, financing constraints, hedging, and exports: Evidence from firm level data

This paper examines whether exchange rate fluctuations are significantly related to the export quantities of firms. We build a simultaneous structural model with external financing costs, and estimate the model on 14 separate Japanese four-digit level industries. We find that export volumes at the firm level are significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. We find higher elasticities of exports with respect to exchange rates than in previous work. Our results cast some doubt on the prevailing wisdom that exchange rates have no effect on trade. Finally, we find in our data that financing constraints play an important role in affecting the sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. Firms that are less financially constrained tend to have lower exchange rate elasticities, which is consistent with our model.