Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective

In this paper, we put the trade effect of the euro in historical perspective. Using a data set that includes 22 industrial countries from 1948 to 2003, we find strong evidence of a gradual increase in trade intensity between European countries over time. Once we control for this trend in trade integration, the euro's impact on trade disappears. Moreover, a significant part of the trend in European trade integration is associated with measurable policy changes in areas such as exchange rate policy and institutional integration.