The (partial) rehabilitation of interest rate parity in the floating rate era: Longer horizons, alternative expectations, and emerging markets

This paper examines several new empirical findings in the study of uncovered interest parity. It reviews recent developments in the study of long-horizon interest parity regressions, the implications of relaxing the rational expectations methodology and the characteristics of results pertaining to the non-G7 currencies, including those in less developed economies. In brief, the evidence against uncovered interest parity in the current floating rate era is not as great as is commonly thought, although it is still true that for the major currencies, the short-term interest differential remains a biased predictor of ex post changes in the exchange rate.