کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
965435 | 930807 | 2010 | 38 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of the Japanese and International Economies - Volume 24, Issue 2, June 2010, Pages 140-177
Journal: Journal of the Japanese and International Economies - Volume 24, Issue 2, June 2010, Pages 140-177
نویسندگان
Kevin Clinton, Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Marianne Johnson, Ondrej Kamenik, Douglas Laxton,