A prognostic model for temporal courses that combines temporal abstraction and case-based reasoning

Since clinical management of patients and clinical research are essentially time-oriented endeavours, reasoning about time has become a hot topic in medical informatics. Here we present a method for prognosis of temporal courses, which combines temporal abstractions with case-based reasoning. It is useful for application domains where neither well-known standards, nor known periodicity, nor a complete domain theory exist. We have used our method in two prognostic applications. The first one deals with prognosis of the kidney function for intensive care patients. The idea is to elicit impairments on time, especially to warn against threatening kidney failures. Our second application deals with a completely different domain, namely geographical medicine. Its intention is to compute early warnings against approaching infectious diseases, which are characterised by irregular cyclic occurrences. So far, we have applied our program on influenza and bronchitis. In this paper, we focus on influenza forecast and show first experimental results.