How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?

Contributing to the debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimuli, we show that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries; (ii) the fiscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rates but is zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are smaller than in closed economies; (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are negative.

► We estimate the fiscal multiplier using an SVAR with a new quarterly database.
► The fiscal multiplier is larger in industrial than in developing countries.
► The fiscal multiplier is larger under fixed than under flexible exchange rates.
► Fiscal multipliers in open economies are smaller than in closed economies.
► Fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are negative.