کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
968287 | 931490 | 2006 | 31 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Robust lessons about practical early warning systems
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: first, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, policy-makers must decide about some EWSs’ elements, such as the sensitivity of the forecasts. Third, EWSs’ performance is increased by taking a logit model, shorter samples and a regional approach. Fourth, the finding of contagion may motivate policy to shield its economy against inefficient international financial markets.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling - Volume 28, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 163–193
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling - Volume 28, Issue 2, February 2006, Pages 163–193
نویسندگان
Daniela Beckmann, Lukas Menkhoff, Katja Sawischlewski,