کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
968383 | 931535 | 2008 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor?
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
This paper shows that the Federal Reserve and private forecasts of the unemployment rate for 1983-2000 have much in common: they produce very similar mean errors and mean squared errors, and, while biased, they are efficient and accurately predict the direction of change in the actual series. However, the private forecasts encompass those of the Federal Reserve and are thus more informative. In light of these findings, we first address several questions related to the unemployment forecasts and then discuss such policy issues as the Federal Reserve's credibility, accountability, and transparency.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling - Volume 30, Issue 1, JanuaryâFebruary 2008, Pages 101-110
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling - Volume 30, Issue 1, JanuaryâFebruary 2008, Pages 101-110
نویسندگان
Hamid Baghestani,