کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
970380 | 1479497 | 2006 | 23 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why? Political budget cycles: Do they differ across countries and why?](/preview/png/970380.png)
This paper uses a large panel data set to examine the relation between elections and fiscal policy. We find evidence of political budget cycles: on average, government fiscal deficit increases by almost 1% of GDP in election years. Moreover, these political budget cycles are significantly larger, and statistically more robust, in developing than in developed countries. We propose a moral hazard model of electoral competition to explain this difference. In the model, the size of the electoral budget cycles depends on politicians' rents of remaining in power and the share of informed voters in the electorate. Using suitable proxies, we show that these institutional features explain a large part of the difference in electoral budget cycles between developed and developing countries.
Journal: Journal of Public Economics - Volume 90, Issues 8–9, September 2006, Pages 1367–1389