کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
9732030 | 1480848 | 2005 | 30 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy](/preview/png/9732030.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
Central bankers frequently emphasize the critical importance of anchoring private inflation expectations for successful monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization. In most monetary policy models, however, expectations are already anchored through the assumption of rational expectations and perfect knowledge of the economy. In this paper, we reexamine the role of inflation expectations by positing, instead, that agents have imperfect knowledge of the precise structure of the economy and policymakers' preferences, and rely on a perpetual learning technology to form expectations. We find that with learning, disturbances can give rise to endogenous inflation scares, that is, significant and persistent deviations of inflation expectations from those implied by rational expectations, even at long horizons. The presence of learning increases the sensitivity of inflation expectations and the term structure of interest rates to economic shocks, in line with the empirical evidence. We also explore the role of private inflation expectations for the conduct of efficient monetary policy. Under rational expectations, inflation expectations equal a linear combination of macroeconomic variables and as such provide no additional information to the policy maker. In contrast, under learning, private inflation expectations follow a time-varying process and provide useful information for the conduct of monetary policy.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Review of Economic Dynamics - Volume 8, Issue 2, April 2005, Pages 498-527
Journal: Review of Economic Dynamics - Volume 8, Issue 2, April 2005, Pages 498-527
نویسندگان
Athanasios Orphanides, John C. Williams,