کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
9732530 | 1481480 | 2005 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Large neural networks for electricity load forecasting: Are they overfitted?
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موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری
کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
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چکیده انگلیسی
Neural networks have apparently enjoyed considerable success in practice for predicting short-term daily electricity load profiles. Most of these applications have utilised very large neural network specifications, which raises the methodological question of over-fitting. This paper examines this issue by comparing several forecasting methods on a sample of hourly electricity demands, including both large neural networks and conventional regression-based methods. We find good performance for the large neural networks, and offer some analysis of why forecasting the 24 element vector of daily electricity demands may be particularly conducive to this approach.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 21, Issue 3, JulyâSeptember 2005, Pages 425-434
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 21, Issue 3, JulyâSeptember 2005, Pages 425-434
نویسندگان
H.S. Hippert, D.W. Bunn, R.C. Souza,