How important can bank lending shocks be for economic fluctuations?

• We examine the effect of bank lending shocks (BLS) on output volatility for Norway and the UK.
• BLS interpreted as unexpected change in a MIX-variable controlling for macro development.
• Find that BLS account for a substantial share of output volatility.
• Results also robust when omitting periods of financial stress from the sample.

We analyze the quantitative importance of bank lending shocks on real activity fluctuations in Norway and the UK, using structural VARs estimated on quarterly data from 1988 to 2010. We find that an adverse bank lending shock causes output to contract, and that such shocks can account for a substantial share of output volatility. This suggests that financial intermediation is an important source of shocks. The empirical analysis comprises the Norwegian banking crisis (1988–1992) and the recent period of banking failures in the UK. However, the results are also non-trivial when omitting periods of systemic banking distress from the sample.