Financial crisis risk, ECB “non-standard” measures, and the external value of the euro

I study the impact of banking and sovereign debt crisis risk of EMU member states on the external value of the euro. Using a regime switching model, I find that the external value of the euro has significantly responded to financial crisis risk during the period of November 2008–November 2011, while no significant effect is found for the period from February 2006 to October 2008. This suggests that the monetary expansion and interest rate cuts associated with the ECB's “non-standard” measures may have reduced the external value of the euro.

► I study the impact of banking and sovereign debt crisis risk on the external value of the euro.
► I find that the euro's external value responded to crisis risk during the period of November 2008 to November 2011.
► No significant effect is found for the period from February 2006 to October 2008.
► The findings suggest that the ECB's “non-standard” measures may reduce the external value of the euro.