Factors Behind the Russian Ruble Depreciation

The primary cause of recent Russian economic downturn is the decline in global oil prices, which led to the currency crisis in Russia. However, other factors, which might have considerable effects on ruble exchange rate, are overlooked – for example changes in gold and gas prices, Russian interest rates, development of stock market and last but not least development of the USD exchange rate itself. A close relationship among these variables may be suspected. The purpose of this article is to discover this relationship and determine the impact of these variables on changes in the ruble exchange rate with the aid of cointegration analysis. It has been found out that besides the decline of the oil price, also decline of gold price, rise of stock market, increase in interest rates and appreciation of USD played a significant role in depreciation of ruble.