On a Possible Predictor of the Cyclical Position of the Economy

This paper aims at proposing and evaluating a macroeconomic indicator that could quantify the cyclical position of the economy. To this end, several concepts are proposed to describe the essential causality of the macroeconomic process (monotonic impulse, stable impulse). On these bases, and taking into consideration the fundamental causal character of the employment in the dynamics of the national economic system, a new concept aimed to measure the cyclical position of the economy is introduced: the marginal productivity of employment. The new concept is the unexamined logically and functionally to determine its relevance and practicability. In this context, a new structure of the economic cycle (from which the crisis phase is rejected) is proposed and examined. Finally, the paper advances some research directions that could further highlight their relevance of the current criteria measuring the cyclical position of the economy.