Exchange-Rate Impact on the Industry-Level Trade Flows in the Czech Republic

The aim of this paper is to explore differences in the long term and short term relationship between bilateral exchange rate development of the Czech koruna and international trade flows with various groups of products. We consider the major trading partners of the Czech Republic (Germany, Slovakia, Poland, France, Italy and Austria) and selected product categories, determined on the basis of SITC classification over the period 1993–2013. We employ the Johannsen cointegration test to analyze the long term relationship and a vector error correction model to explore the short term effects. Our findings suggest that most of product groups related with exchange rate in the long term. A positive effect of depreciation was revealed for most of the categories. The short term coefficient revealed almost no relationship.