کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
983487 | 1480470 | 2008 | 8 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
How well do U.S. consumers predict the direction of change in interest rates?
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: How well do U.S. consumers predict the direction of change in interest rates? How well do U.S. consumers predict the direction of change in interest rates?](/preview/png/983487.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
The Michigan survey asks U.S. consumers about their 1-year expected directional change in interest rates. For 1978-1983 when interest rates are volatile, we find a strong association between the actual and predicted changes, with no asymmetry (the proportions of incorrectly predicted upward and downward moves are statistically the same.) For 1984-2005 when interest rates are relatively stable, we find asymmetry (consumers do not accurately predict the downward moves in interest rates.) We conclude that consumer borrowing based on such expectations can undermine monetary policy effectiveness, depending both on the directional change in policy and interest rate volatility.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance - Volume 48, Issue 4, November 2008, Pages 725-732
Journal: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance - Volume 48, Issue 4, November 2008, Pages 725-732
نویسندگان
Hamid Baghestani, Samer Kherfi,