کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
986219 1480991 2015 27 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تاثیر تحریم های مالی بر اقتصاد روسیه
کلمات کلیدی
تحریم های مالی؛ تعادل تنظیم پرداخت. بدهی خارجی؛ جریان سرمایه
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper examines the impact of the current Western financial sanctions on the Russian economy. Modeling the capital flow components (accounting for the influence of other factors, including falling oil prices) reveals that sanctions have directly affected sanctioned state-controlled banks, oil, gas and arms companies by severely constraining foreign funding and have indirectly affected non-sanctioned companies by reducing inflows of foreign direct investment and causing funding conditions to deteriorate. The overall negative effect on gross capital inflow over 2014–2017 is estimated at approximately $280bn. However, the effect on net capital inflow is significantly lower ($160–170bn) due to Russian companies’ self-adjustment, which is evidenced by their utilization of foreign assets accumulated earlier for debt repayment and an overall decrease in gross capital outflow. The sanctions’ estimated effect on GDP is significant (–2.4 p.p. by 2017, compared with a hypothetical scenario with no sanctions) but 3.3 times lower than the estimated effects of the oil price shock.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Russian Journal of Economics - Volume 1, Issue 4, December 2015, Pages 359–385
نویسندگان
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