کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
986462 1480843 2006 28 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The role of agriculture in aggregate business cycles
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The role of agriculture in aggregate business cycles
چکیده انگلیسی

There are substantial differences in business cycle fluctuations across countries. These differences are systematically related to the share of agriculture in the economy: Countries with a high share of employment in agriculture feature high fluctuations in aggregate output, low relative volatility of aggregate employment, and low correlation of aggregate output and employment. In addition, agriculture has certain distinctive features over the business cycle: Output and employment in agriculture are more volatile than and not positively correlated with output and employment in the rest of the economy and output and employment are less correlated in agriculture than in non-agriculture. Because of these features, agriculture may play a role in accounting for aggregate business cycles across countries. We calibrate an otherwise standard two-sector indivisible-labor business cycle model with agriculture and non-agriculture to aggregate and sectoral data for the United States. We find that an increase in the employment to population ratio in agriculture from 2 to 30 percent in our model increases fluctuations in aggregate output by almost 40 percent. This is about 2/3 of the difference in aggregate fluctuations between countries such as Turkey and the United States.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Review of Economic Dynamics - Volume 9, Issue 3, July 2006, Pages 455–482
نویسندگان
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